In a previous entry I made it known that I don’t think an alliance comprising the DA/ACDP/FF+/AMP/UP will be able to stay together despite them banding together to shut the ANC and ID out of power in the Cape Town council.
The margins just seem too slim (3 votes in the mayoral vote, 1 vote in the deputy mayoral vote) and there is too much ideological differences between the parties (perhaps you missed the AMP’s ‘Gay = sin’ posters).
I think that despite the DA being in top spot future votes in the council have a good chance of not always going the DA’s way. I think most parties will take issues on a case-by-case basis and the DA may find that it’s allies who helped get Helen Zille elected today will not support it tomorrow.
And of course there’s the issue of the floor crossing window opening next year. That could cut the DA reign short but they could survive depending on a number of factors. Firstly is the question of the alliance remaining stable, or at least friendly to a DA mayor to stop a no confidence vote.
Secondly there is the question of how the ID voters and councillors feel about being shut out. They may feel they have been made to look pretty bad voting with the ANC while getting nowhere and may now throw their support behind a winning horse. I’m sure Patricia De Lille is already trying to weed out potential crosstitutes. It might serve her interest to come out more formally in support of the DA.
So while there is calm and stability now, I really do think it could unravel at any time.
Update: Nuts and bolts of Cape power-sharing deal – Well that was quick. Looks like the DA are trying to lock their alliance members into a formal agreement. Although we all know how well the previous formal agreement between the DA and the NNP ended
Here’s a juicy nugget from the story:
...and a rogue vote from the ANC-ID bloc going to the DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille…
I think there might be few more ‘rogue votes’ unless Patricia De Lille quells those rumblings of internal rebellion that seem to have been coming from the ID.